Wind Drives Down Spot Power Prices as Geopolitical Risks Lift Gas and Forward Markets

The Dutch day-ahead (DA) baseload price averaged €133.8/MWh in week 43, down €54.0/MWh week on week, while the peak price fell €49.1/MWh to €138.8/MWh. Prices started the week high on Monday (€207.3/MWh) before falling €133.5/MWh on Friday. The sharp collapse in NL DA baseload prices on Saturday and Sunday (to €33.62/MWh and €23.3/MWh, respectively) was driven by a surge in wind generation across Northwest Europe. A low-pressure system approaching from the North Sea sustained high wind output during the second half of the week. German wind generation was also well above seasonal norms, lowering residual load and reducing gas-fired power demand across the region. Hourly prices were around zero at times over the weekend. The intra-week pattern showed a notable divergence: power prices fell as wind output rose from mid-week, while gas prices continued to climb on geopolitical risks, creating a widening disconnect between the two markets by Friday.

The TTF day-ahead (DA) price averaged €90.4/MWh in week 43, an increase of €4.6/MWh week on week. The month-ahead (MA, Nov-26) contract gained €6.3/MWh to €93.9/MWh. The weekday average DA–MA spread widened to €0.86/MWh from €0.52/MWh in week 42 (€0.15/MWh in week 41). The premium reflected tightness in the Northwest European (NWE) balance. NWE demand increased by about 20% week on week to roughly 527 mcm/d, while storage was in net withdrawal from Monday to Thursday. As a result, NWE storage increased by only 0.2 percentage points over the week, reaching 66.6% on 25 October (up 1.4 percentage points in week 42). In absolute terms, NWE storage stood at 393 TWh (about 37,200 mcm), about 14% below the level on the same date in 2025 and about 29% below the 2024 level. Total NWE gas demand increased by 87.5 mcm/d (+20%) to 527 mcm/d from 440 mcm/d in week 42). LNG send-out rose by about 15 mcm/d (+8%) to 202 mcm/d, while Norwegian flows fell by 16 mcm/d (about 5%) to 297 mcm/d from 313 mcm/d in week 42, amid planned and unplanned outages.

Supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz remained the main upside driver. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy reported that four vessels involved in oil transfers in the northern Persian Gulf were struck and caught fire, while three more vessels collided with mines west of the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC warned the US military that continued provocations could lead to a wider regional response. Asian LNG prices climbed above USD 30/mmBtu, intensifying competition with Europe for limited LNG supply.