Power Rises as Wind Fades, Despite Easing Gas
01..10.2026
Short term
Power — Short-term:
Dutch day-ahead baseload prices rose in Week 39, averaging €163.9/MWh, up €24.8/MWh week-on-week. Peak prices followed the same direction, averaging €137.5/MWh (+€22.7/MWh). The increase came despite cheaper gas: day-ahead TTF fell €6.0/MWh to €74.2/MWh, so the move was driven by renewables rather than fuel costs. Much of the week-on-week increase reflects the comparison base. The weekend of Week 38 saw exceptionally high wind output in the Netherlands and neighbouring countries such as Germany, which pushed prices on Friday, Saturday and Sunday down. Without that wind relief, this weekend cleared considerably higher. Monday was the exception, falling €64.9/MWh to €164.5/MWh against an expensive start to Week 38. Prices were otherwise elevated throughout the week, with a notable spike on Tuesday 22 September when the 19:00 hour cleared at €570.94/MWh. On the supply side, ongoing maintenance at Flevo 5 continued to limit available gas-fired capacity. The NorNed interconnector (723 MW) was also fully unavailable from Saturday 26 September, cutting off Norwegian imports over the weekend.
Gas — Short-term:
TTF month-ahead prices fell in Week 39, averaging €74.2/MWh, down €6.0/MWh week-on-week. Prices declined through the first half of the week to their lowest level since early September, on tentative signs of easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. A brief rebound followed on Thursday as US–Iran talks stalled, before prices eased again into the weekend. Storage remains a concern, with EU sites only around two-thirds full, well below previous years.
Electricity (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
Long term
Forward curves moved lower this week as the geopolitical risk premium faded at the front of the gas curve. TTF fell sharply across the winter contracts, with OCT-26 down €7.4/MWh, while the back end from CAL-28 onwards was broadly flat. Coal moved in the opposite direction, firming modestly across the curve. Base NL followed gas lower, with OCT-26 giving back last week’s gains and the rest of the winter months showing similar declines. Further out, moves were limited. Because power and gas fell largely in step, CSS Base margins were broadly stable to slightly firmer through Q4-26 but weakened in Q1-27 as power dropped more than gas. CSS Base remains negative across most of the curve, with only a few winter months around breakeven.
Weekly changes
Base (€/MWh)
Peak (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
CO2 (€/MWh)
Aanmelden wekelijkse marktrapport
Vul hieronder uw gegevens in en ontvang gratis het wekelijkse marktrapport in uw mailbox.
Want to know more about us?
Contact us via our contact page or find out more about our company on the about us page.