Low wind generation drives up Dutch power prices
06..10.2026
Short term
The Dutch baseload day-ahead price averaged €178.2/MWh in Week 40, up €14.3/MWh week on week. The peak price increased by €34.7/MWh to €172.2/MWh. The week was distinguished by weak wind generation, with conditions tightening further towards the end of the week. Wind output briefly recovered to around normal levels from late Tuesday into early Wednesday, helping baseload prices fall to the weekly low of €147.7/MWh. However, we still saw a pronounced evening peak, with hourly prices reaching around €255/MWh at 19:00, well above the gas short-run marginal cost (SRMC) of roughly €170/MWh. This suggests that higher-cost generation was required to meet the evening residual load. From Thursday onwards, wind generation dropped to extremely low levels, lifting baseload prices to €197.0/MWh on Thursday and to the weekly high of €199.0/MWh on Friday. With wind output close to zero, residual load remained elevated throughout the day, keeping thermal generation on the margin during the morning ramp, evening peak and overnight hours. Even during the solar hours on Thursday, prices remained elevated, with the peak price reaching around €203.8/MWh, as solar generation alone was insufficient to offset the lack of wind. As a result, Week 40 recorded the highest weekly average so far in 2026.
Electricity (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
Long term
TTF day-ahead (DA) prices are still driven mainly by the month-ahead (MA) benchmark rather than by spot fundamentals. During week 40, the DA price stayed close to the MA contract, between €0.07/MWh below and €0.72/MWh above it, with an average premium of about €0.20/MWh. The DA price averaged €72.6/MWh, down €1.7/MWh week on week. The week opened at €71.8/MWh on Monday and reached the weekly high of €74.3/MWh on Friday. Prices moved higher into the end of the week on speculation of a possible escalation in the Middle East, after the US announced it would send a third aircraft carrier strike group and around 10,000 more troops to the region. Brent crude (December contract) also moved back above $100/bbl on the news. On the supply side, there were some signs of improvement. A total of 19 liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes (13 from Qatar and six from the United Arab Emirates) left the Strait of Hormuz in September, the highest monthly number since the US–Israeli war on Iran began. However, this is still roughly 80% below the pre-war level of about 86 cargoes per month. The Dutch Gate LNG terminal also completed its expansion, adding 4 bcm (billion cubic metres) per year of regasification capacity. These were partly offset by QatarEnergy extending its force majeure on LNG deliveries to Edison (Italian power and gas utility, with long-term Qatari LNG supply contracts) until December, affecting six cargoes.
The forward curve rose week on week across most of the power, gas and coal contracts. Dutch baseload for Nov-26 gained €4.3/MWh to €173.1/MWh, and Cal-27 gained €3.9/MWh to €129.4/MWh. TTF rose €2.9/MWh to €74.8/MWh for Nov-26 and €2.6/MWh to €59.4/MWh for Cal-27, which leaves the curve in steep backwardation (Cal-28 at €39.0/MWh). Coal rose faster than gas (Nov-26 +€7.0/t to €126.7/t), while EUAs (EU Allowances) fell €2.4/t to €84.4/t for Nov-26. The clean spark spread (CSS) base for Nov-26 is close to zero (-€0.2/MWh), while the clean dark spread (CDS) rose €3.9/MWh to €51.7/MWh.
Weekly changes
Base (€/MWh)
Peak (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
CO2 (€/MWh)
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