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Gas Supply Risk and Heatwave Drive Prices Higher
19.08.2026
Short term
Power — Short-term:
Dutch day-ahead baseload prices increased in Week 33, averaging €130.9/MWh, up €18.9/MWh week-on-week. The baseload increase was driven by an increase in the gas price throughout week 33. Additionally, the increase was driven by higher consumption from air conditioning during the heatwave in Europe in week 33. Also, nuclear capacity in France was lower in week 33 compared to week 32, due to jellyfish clogging the cooling systems of certain nuclear plants and rivers used for cooling reaching temperatures too high, requiring shutdowns. Additionally, the coal capacity was lower due to an extended shutdown of Maasvlakte 3. The peak power had an increase of €22.6/MWh week-on-week, with an average of €92.4/MWh. The increases here happened on Wednesday to Friday.
Gas — Short-term:
TTF month-ahead prices rebounded in Week 33, averaging €59.4/MWh against €56.0/MWh in Week 32, an increase of €3.4/MWh, as the Strait of Hormuz standoff deepened and reversed the prior week’s de-escalation. Talks on an interim transit arrangement broke down after Washington introduced tougher conditions, including compensation demands from Iran and the threat of a naval blockade, while Tehran maintained that restrictions would continue until sanctions were lifted. Additionally, the heatwaves across Europe added further pressure by keeping gas-fired power demand elevated.
Electricity (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
Long term
Forward markets rose across the board this week amid the renewed escalation in the Strait of Hormuz standoff. TTF climbed, with SEP-26 (+€5.9/MWh to €61.4/MWh) and CAL-27 (+€3.0 to €43.8) both up sharply, though contracts further out on the curve (CAL-28 through CAL-30) responded far less, adding only around €1/MWh or less. Coal also moved higher across the curve with coal continuing to track gas as a substitute fuel. The baseload power market moved largely in line with TTF, rising in tandem across the curve: Base NL SEP-26 rose €5.7/MWh to €132.7/MWh and CAL-27 rose €2.8/MWh to €102.5/MWh, with front months (SEP-26 through Q4-26) posting the largest gains while CAL-28/29/30 again barely responded. Coal also moved higher across the curve with coal continuing to track gas as a substitute fuel. CSS margins narrowed across most contracts, as power prices failed to keep pace with the sharper rise in gas costs.
Weekly changes
Base (€/MWh)
Peak (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
CO2 (€/MWh)
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