Dutch Power Prices Ease as Iran De-escalation Sinks Gas and Coal

Dutch day-ahead baseload prices decreased in Week 32, averaging €112.0/MWh, down €4.0/MWh week-on-week. The baseload decrease was driven by a decrease in the gas price throughout week 32. Additionally, the baseload price decrease was driven by higher renewable supply conditions due to higher wind output across Northwestern Europe. Despite the lower baseload price, the capacity of nuclear assets in France was lower in week 32 compared to week 31. Additionally, the coal capacity was lower due to the shutdown of Maasvlakte 3. Additionally, ongoing maintenance on the NorNed cable cut the import capacity from Norway. The peak power had a small decrease of €5.5/MWh week-on-week, with an average of €69.7/MWh. The highest decrease here happened between Wednesday to Saturday.

Gas — Short-term:

TTF month-ahead prices eased further in Week 32, averaging €56.0/MWh against €59.5/MWh in Week 31, a decline of €3.5/MWh, as US-Iran tensions showed their first genuine sign of de-escalation in weeks. The week opened sharply lower, with prices falling as much as 4% at Monday’s open after President Trump announced he had called off a planned US strike on Iranian energy sites, with Washington and Tehran agreeing to resume talks shortly after. The decline extended into Tuesday as hopes built for a broader agreement between the two sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, with crude oil selling off in tandem on the same news. Unlike the gradual, sentiment-driven softening seen in Week 31, this move reflected a more concrete shift in the US-Iran risk narrative, with market participants beginning to price in the possibility of an earlier resolution than the prolonged-crisis scenario that had anchored the forward curve through July. That relief proved fragile, however: reports emerging later in the week pointed to the talks running into friction, with Iran seeking compensation for damage from earlier US and Israeli strikes and the US pushing back on those demands, which tempered the pace of the rally and left the market still exposed to renewed escalation between Washington and Tehran heading into Week 33.