Dutch-German Power Price Spread Widens Amid Rising Residual Demand

Last week, the average power price in the Netherlands rose to 108.07 €/MWh, reflecting a 7% increase compared to the previous week. This surge was primarily driven by the first half of the week, during which prices ranged from around 122 €/MWh to 151 €/MWh. In contrast, wind generation increased overall in the week, majorly picking up in the latter part of the week, with a 6% week-on-week rise in the Netherlands and a modest 1% increase in Germany. Despite the overall increase in wind generation, there was a significant drop in solar production, which fell by 35% in both countries. This sharp decline in solar output led to a surge in residual demand, driving up power prices.

Additionally, the price spread between the Netherlands and Germany widened, with German power prices averaging 123.57 €/MWh, significantly higher than in the Netherlands, resulting in an NL–DE spread of around –15 €/MWh for Week 48. The most notable price differential occurred on November 25, when both wind and solar generation were exceptionally low in Germany. This resulted in a spike in residual demand in Germany, which reached as high as 70.8 GW, causing day-ahead prices to average 220.52 €/MWh. In contrast, the Netherlands saw a price of 147.57 €/MWh, as it benefited from modest wind production and solar generation which was slightly above climate-normal levels, helping to ease system conditions.

Meanwhile, TTF gas prices continued to decline, dropping by 1.5 €/MWh on average to 29.6 €/MWh, driven by high Norwegian Continental Shelf nominations, a reduced war-risk premium, stable supply-demand fundamentals, and milder weather conditions.