Dutch Power Prices Rally on Weak Renewables and Higher Gas Prices

Dutch power prices averaged €187.9/MWh in Week 42, up €49.7/MWh week-on-week, primarily driven by weaker renewable generation and higher gas prices. Solar output declined significantly, with generation down 23% in the Netherlands and 12% in Germany compared to the previous week. Wind generation was also weaker across Northwest Europe, falling 24% in Germany and 7% in the Netherlands.

The combination of lower solar and wind output provided strong support to power prices particularly during daylight hours, when renewable generation would typically exert downward pressure on the market. As a result, the week-on-week increase in Dutch power prices was largely concentrated in peak-load contracts, with Dutch peak-load power prices averaging €187.9/MWh, same as baseload in Week 42, up €56.6/MWh from the previous week.

Additional upside pressure came from supply-side constraints in the Netherlands. EEMS 4, 5, and 7 (356 MW each) were subject to grid-related market restrictions between 12 and 17 October, limiting the site’s combined output to 0 MW and reducing available generation capacity.

Gas – Short-term:

Gas prices provided further support to power markets. TTF Day-Ahead prices averaged €85.8/MWh, up €8.5/MWh WoW, while the Nov-26 Month-Ahead contract rose to €87.5/MWh, its highest level since early 2023. The strength in gas prices continues to be underpinned by a tightening Northwest European gas balance. NWE demand rose 13% WoW to around 440 mcm/d, while supply was broadly unchanged, with lower LNG send-out largely offsetting modest increases in Norwegian flows and domestic production. As a result, net storage injections slowed to 95 mcm/d (from 138 mcm/d the previous week), bringing NWE storage to 66% by 18 October, approximately 14 % below 2025 levels and 30% below 2024 for the same date. Geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz remained the primary upside driver for gas prices. Attacks on commercial vessels reached their highest level since the conflict began in February, while Gulf LNG flows remain at only approximately 30% of pre-war volumes. Despite ongoing diplomatic discussions, no material progress has been made, leaving supply disruption risks firmly embedded in winter gas pricing.