Higher Wind Offsets Solar Weakness, Limiting Dutch Power Price Gains

Prices in the week were clearly front-loaded. The week opened strongly, with day-ahead prices at €144.3/MWh on Monday and an evening peak of €321.1/MWh (hour 20), while Tuesday remained elevated at €122.4/MWh amid weaker renewable output. From midweek, prices eased as wind generation picked up, falling below €100/MWh and reaching €40.2/MWh on Sunday. This late-week softness ultimately weighed on the weekly average.

TTF day-ahead prices edged higher, averaging €48.0/MWh (+€0.9 week-on-week), holding a steady discount of around €0.40/MWh to the month-ahead contract throughout the week. Given that weekly variation in gas consumption typically remains low at this time of the year, the upward pressure was driven primarily by the month-ahead contract rather than spot-specific fundamentals. The bullish move in TTF month-ahead was driven by persistent geopolitical risk and tightening global LNG balances. Unresolved US–Iran tensions and stalled negotiations over Lebanon sustained a supply risk premium, while stronger Asian LNG demand supported by warmer weather forecasts and uncertainty around China’s import reduction raised concerns over tighter spot cargo availability for Europe.