Dutch power prices surge on tight supply as gas eases from Hormuz peak

Dutch day-ahead baseload prices rose in Week 31, averaging €116.0/MWh, up €8.0/MWh week-on-week. The baseload increase was driven primarily by tighter supply conditions, with lower wind output across Northwest Europe reducing renewable infeed and pushing more expensive thermal capacity into the merit order. This was made worse because several nuclear assets across Europe reduced their output due to cooling water problems. Besides, ongoing maintenance on the NorNed cable cut into import capacity from Norway. To top it off, a handful of large conventional units, including Eemshaven 20, Eemshaven 30, Rijnmond 2 and Moerdijk 2, were all offline for maintenance at the same time. The sharper rise on peak was concentrated on Friday and through the weekend. The rise in the weekend was primarily due to lower wind power levels in Week 31 compared to Week 30. Peak power rose sharply in Week 31, averaging €75.2/MWh, up €13.6/MWh week-on-week.

Notably, TTF day-ahead prices eased slightly on the week, down €1.3/MWh to average €59.5/MWh, decoupling from the sharp rise seen in power prices. The softening likely reflects de-escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, with no new disruption to shipping through the chokepoint easing the acute risk premium that had built up over past weeks.

Gas — Short-term:

TTF month-ahead prices eased slightly in Week 31, averaging €59.5/MWh against €60.8/MWh in Week 30, a decline of €1.3/MWh, as the market partially digested the sharp escalation seen in the previous two weeks. The week opened at its high of €63.0/MWh on Monday before easing steadily through the week to settle around €59.4/MWh by the weekend. For the month of July, the war in Iran sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital chokepoint that previously carried about one-fifth of global crude oil and natural gas supplies — driving Brent’s biggest monthly gain since March. The escalation over the weekend of 18–19 July, when Qatar halted all maritime activities in the Strait, had driven the prior week’s spike, and sentiment remained anchored to that risk through Week 31 even as prices gradually softened: many gas market players have now shifted their base case to a prolonged Hormuz crisis scenario, with LNG transit expected to remain severely constrained through the end of 2026 before gradually recovering only in Q1 2027, keeping the forward curve firmly anchored to the risk premium even as spot-level relief allowed the month-ahead to soften modestly on the week.